sunshine hours

September 27, 2013

IPCC Statement About Last 3 Decades

Filed under: IPCC AR5,Mockery,Morons — sunshinehours1 @ 8:07 PM
Tags: ,

“Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850”

My Response (using HADCRUT4 data)

Decade Mean Anomaly C

1850 -0.32
1860 -0.33
1870 -0.26
1880 -0.30
1890 -0.36
1900 -0.41
1910 -0.39
1920 -0.25
1930 -0.12
1940 0.00
1950 -0.06
1960 -0.05
1970 -0.08

Each of the 4 decades after the 1870s were successively COLDER at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850

Why did it take until the 1920s to get as warm as the 1870s?

Each of the 3 decades after the 1900s were successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850

But the next 3 decades after the 1940s were COLDER than the 1940s.

Why?

Explain your work.

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3 Comments »

  1. Reblogged this on CraigM350.

    Comment by craigm350 — September 28, 2013 @ 4:02 AM | Reply

  2. This is a bit of a silly question that seems to be just a rhetorical device given that all climate scientists know that recent climate is a combination of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings. In the 19th Century anthropogenic forcings would have been small and natural variability the dominant factor. Today anthropogenic forcings have grown to be larger than natural ones.

    It also implies a basic logical fallacy that the two things must have the same cause. That’s equivalent to arguing that because fires have started in the past naturally, a fire could not be arson. I’d go further and suggest it’s equivalent to someone on trial for arson who has been seen at the crime site where traces of matches and gasoline have been found on a day there was no lightning, raising lightning as his defense.

    You’ve also neglected to mention the scale of the decadal changes – the last three decades of warming absolutely dwarf the three decades of cooling in the mid 20th and late 19th Century:-

    [img]http://www.scilogs.de/wblogs/gallery/16/AR5_temp_obs.png[/img]

    Comment by Ed — October 2, 2013 @ 6:07 AM | Reply

    • “Today anthropogenic forcings have grown to be larger than natural ones.”

      Why would you say that? What proof would you offer?

      If nature could raise temperatures by .7C from 1910 to 1945 at the end of the last 66 year cycles, what makes you think nature couldn’t have done that again during the end of this 66 year cycle?

      “on a day there was no lightning”

      The AMO, PDO, NAO, AO , NINO etc never went away.

      Comment by sunshinehours1 — October 2, 2013 @ 7:32 AM | Reply


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