There is a new scare story in the Guardian claiming “climate change” will cut crops harvests by 2% per decade due to global warming. The chief clown seems to be Dr Mark Howden of the CSIRO. CSIRO are a group of idiots in Australia pretending to be climate scientists.
“An analysis of more than 1,700 simulations found that across all regions and all crops, including wheat, maize and rice, yields will drop by 2% each decade, based on a 2C rise by 2050.”
Lets look at this irrational story with rational eyes.
A 2C rise by 2050 is extremely unlikely considering that temperatures have been flat since 1998 and have declined since 2002.
But lets humor the idiots and assume temperatures will rise by 2C by 2050. Lets assume farmer Bob with 160 acres of land or Agribusiness XYZ Corporation with 10 square miles of land is currently growing wheat that has been chosen by the collective brainpower of Bob or XYZ to produce the best yield possible at current temperatures and rainfall. And lets say over the next 9 years temperature rises by (correction – I had .25C) .5C (it is 36 years to 2050 so lets use 9 years).
Now because CIRO and Mark Howden are idiots, they assume farmer Bob and all the top scientists at XYZ Corporation are going to keep growing the exact same strain of wheat and they will irrigate (if they irrigate) using the same amount of water and they will use the same fertilizer and they will plant the crop at the exact same time as they always have.
Bullsh*t. They won’t do that. Farmer Bob might be an idiot, but I doubt it. XYZ might be staffed by morons. But I doubt it. If farmer Bob and XYZ are still in business, I assume they are smart enough to do something different. They might plant a little earlier and harvest a little earlier since winters will be warmer. They might use a different strain of wheat or plant a different crop like canola or soybeans or whatever responds to a small rise in temepratures. They might use a different fertilizer. They will adapt. And if the temperature kept rising they will adapt again.
On top of that, along the cold edge of the growing region in North America, new land will become productive if it is warmer, leading to even more crops being grown. And in the southern (warm) edge of the growing region, they will adapt too by growing crops better suited to the newer climate.
World grain production has been rising for decades. It will keep rising. And idiots pretending to be scientists will keep squandering money on stupidity.