sunshine hours

March 20, 2014

Dr Mark Howden, of the CSIRO thinks farmers are idiots

Filed under: Mockery,Morons — sunshinehours1 @ 2:38 PM
Tags: , , , ,

There is a new scare story in the Guardian claiming “climate change” will cut crops harvests by 2% per decade due to global warming. The chief clown seems to be Dr Mark Howden of the CSIRO. CSIRO are a group of idiots in Australia pretending to be climate scientists.

“An analysis of more than 1,700 simulations found that across all regions and all crops, including wheat, maize and rice, yields will drop by 2% each decade, based on a 2C rise by 2050.”

Lets look at this irrational story with rational eyes.

A 2C rise by 2050 is extremely unlikely considering that temperatures have been flat since 1998 and have declined since 2002.

But lets humor the idiots and assume temperatures will rise by 2C by 2050.  Lets assume farmer Bob with 160 acres of land or Agribusiness XYZ Corporation with 10 square miles of land is currently growing wheat that has been chosen by the collective brainpower of Bob or XYZ to produce the best yield possible at current temperatures and rainfall. And lets say  over the next 9 years temperature rises by (correction РI had .25C) .5C (it is 36 years to 2050 so lets use 9 years).

Now because CIRO and Mark Howden are idiots, they assume farmer Bob and all the top scientists at XYZ Corporation are going to keep growing the exact same strain of wheat and they will irrigate (if they irrigate) using the same amount of water and they will use the same fertilizer and they will plant the crop at the exact same time as they always have.

Bullsh*t. They won’t do that. Farmer Bob might be an idiot, but I doubt it. XYZ might be staffed by morons. But I doubt it. If farmer Bob and XYZ are still in business, I assume they are smart enough to do something different. They might plant a little earlier and harvest a little earlier since winters will be warmer. They might use a different strain of wheat or plant a different crop like canola or soybeans or whatever responds to a small rise in temepratures. They might use a different fertilizer. They will adapt. And if the temperature kept rising they will adapt again.

On top of that, along the cold edge of the growing region in North America, new land will become productive if it is warmer, leading to even more crops being grown. And in the southern (warm) edge of the growing region, they will adapt too by growing crops better suited to the newer climate.

World grain production has been rising for decades. It will keep rising. And idiots pretending to be scientists will keep squandering money on stupidity.

grain-production2

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3 Comments »

  1. i believe that in the details of the paper, they also state that soy, rice and wheat yields will rise. Some of the rise is mitigated by the temps, but there is still a rise in yield. Its only corn in the simulations that suffers a loss.

    And yes, in North America, corn would move north. Other crops would fill the void in the south. Total grain production would likely increase, and more land would go fallow becuase its not needed. Matt Ridley has written on how we are probably at Peak Farm land now. Or would be, except for bio fuels.

    But yes, I have seen this many times. Some wag called it the “dumb farmer syndrome”.

    Comment by Les Johnson — March 20, 2014 @ 5:13 PM | Reply

    • Dumb Farmer Syndrome. I’ll look it up. It reminds me of all those scare stories about Bangladeshi’s drowning because of sea level rise.

      I used to respond: “Do you think the average Bangladeshi is so stupid that he will stand there and let the ocean drown him? Of course not.”

      Comment by sunshinehours1 — March 20, 2014 @ 6:37 PM | Reply

  2. Actually, I know Dr Howden, have heard him speak several times. He is extremely respectful of the capacity of farmers.

    Comment by Colin Butler — May 4, 2014 @ 8:36 AM | Reply


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