I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time. A week or two ago I made a slight change in one of my graphs to annotate the peaks and valleys with the year and now the pattern jumps out at you even more.
This graph is for day 95, but the pattern is similar in other parts of the year.
There has been since 1988 a 4 or 5 year oscillation where the ice extent goes to a valley in between peaks. And the magnitude of the oscillation is growing.
These are not small oscillations. Sea Ice Extent as of today is 7,000,000 sq km. The 2011 valley is 4,700,000 sq km. That is a 50% jump in sea ice on day 95 from 2011 to 2014.
I know the AMO has peaked and is poised to start down (it may take a few more years). But to repeat myself, I’m not sure what it means.
Click for larger.
Some guy at the NY Times Thinks It Is The “End Of Snow” For the Olympics.
“In the last 47 years, a million square miles of spring snow cover has disappeared from the Northern Hemisphere”
I suspect the “author” used 47 years because the Rutgers Snow Lab’s data for the Northern Hemisphere starts in 1967 (2014 – 47).
Now the Olympics usually runs in February, so lets look at snow cover data for February.
2013 in February certainly had a little less snow than 1967 (47 years ago).
But 2013 had a lot more than 1968. About 3.5 million sq km more in fact according the Rutgers snow lab.
And 2010-2013 were probably the snowiest 4 years ever. The late 1970s would be the snowiest 3 years (but that was the coldest winter in US history)
1989 to 2002 looked bad for snow. But that was a long time ago. Warmists do tend to live in the past.
Looking at that graph I would have to conclude that there is no end of snow. Snow is doing just fine in the Northern Hemisphere.
However, the lack of snow does somewhat coincide with the AMO in February being very low. But it has nothing to do with CO2.
The drought in California is making the news. I’m sure it will be blamed on “Global Warming.
I came across an article by Roger Pielke Sr. from 2012 that reminds us that when the PDO is cool (which it is) and the AMO is warm (which it is) drought in California is going to happen.
The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. Below are two graphs of each month of the AMO. One is from 2004. The other from 1856.
I think the AMO has peaked, but it is still wobbling around at the top of the peak and may continue to do so for several years.
Thw winter months definitely show an alternating saw-tooth pattern going down. If the pattern holds Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb should show a big drop.
But Oct stayed flat when it should have dropped. Who knows.
Do you live in the Northern Hemisphere.? Did anyone tell you that in the midst of record CO2 levels HADCRUT4 shows massively dropping winter temperatures?
At the bottom of this post is a graph of HADCRUT4 Northern Hemisphere only temperatures for each month for the last 7 years.
Did you know December was cooling at -.9C per decade? By 2100 December could be 8C colder?
Did you know January was cooling at -.73C per decade?
Did you know March was cooling at -.56C per decade?
Did you know February was cooling at -.19C per decade?
Did you know November was cooling at -.2C per decade?
Did you know October was cooling at -.17C per decade?
Did you know April was cooling at -.17C per decade?
I’m glad I have a wood stove.
Over the last 10 years HADCRUT4 has had a slightly negative trend. But the months each have their own trend.
September to April have been cooling, while May – August have been warning, All 12 months with trends are below.
I wonder why CO2 has forsaken the winter months?
The interesting thing is this matches the AMO as you can see in the post I did in January. (I would do a new post but the US shutdown has shutdown the page I got the AMO data from).
When the AMO finishes going negative this will be very bad news for the CO2/Warmist Cult.. And even worse news for the world’s agriculture.
Right now, Dec/Jan/Feb are cooling at -0.17C/decade to -0.25C/decade. Brr. Germany is already off to the coldest start of winter in 200 years.
Has the AMO Peaked and started its drop towards negative? The answer is yes for winter months and no for summer months.
Maybe thats why winter Arctic Ice is doing fine and summer Arctic Ice is not doing fine.
I have included a graph for the AMO for all years that we have data, and then the AMO broken down for each individual month.
The blue boxes in the graphs contain 5 years averages, the blue line underneath is the 5 year period. Red values = above 0 and blue values = below 0.
The All Years AMO has dropped a little over the last 5 years compared to the previous 5 years, but the value is still higher than the 1950 peak of the AMO (but not as high as the short peak around 1878).
It is also interesting that the 1950 peak was in the middle of a 35-40 year period above zero and the current peak is only 15 years long. The AMO may still have decades left above zero, but the winter months look like it was a shorter peak.
May to October 5 year values are still higher than the previous peak around 1950.
November to April have dropped and are now lower than the previous peak around 1950.
Click on any graph to make it bigger.
The AMO is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
HADCRUT4 is a failed attempt by the UK MET to pretend it is warming.
Update: In an earlier version the legend on the graph had blue labeled as Antarctic even though it was Arctic. The body of the post had it right (thanks Tom,Hugh,Tom,Anthony,Mike and Sundance for noticing ).
I decided to graph the AMO vs Arctic Sea Ice Extent vs Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. AMO data comes from NOAA, Sea Ice data comes from NSIDC.
The green is the AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The red is Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. The blue is the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
The dashed lines are the liner trends for each.
There are three amazing things:
1) The AMO trend is identical to the Antarctic trend even though the AMO is the sea surface trend of the North Atlantic Ocean! The trend are so close it is hard to see the AMO and Antarctic trends as separate items.
2) The Arctic trend is almost a mirror image of the Antarctic trend.
3) The cross over point is around 1997 which is when the AMO went officially positive (it sometimes goes opposite to the main trend for a few months)
The AMO is cyclic and will return to negative soon enough and this graph implies that sea ice trends will just reverse in a few years.
Click on the graph for a larger size.
I am not a graphics wizard, but I took the Arctic Ice image from NSIDC, and graphed the AMO.
And then I flipped the AMO. Looks like AMO has an effect on Arctic Sea Ice.