UPDATE: Sorry about the title. Not sure what happened. Fixed now.
The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. And probably has more to do with Arctic Sea Ice than any other factor. This is loess trend of each month of the AMO on the same graph.
The winter months started trending down around 2005/2008. Spring months have been flattish since the same time. Only July-Sept have stayed high. June has been flat.
The first four months of 2014 were all negative.
Same graph, but from 1856 and 1979. The spread in months now seems to be repeating the pattern way back in 1856. But that could be an endpoint artifact.
Same graphs, but the data and the trends.
The graph is in thise post compares sea ice extent for just one day of each year – 138 to the AMO for the month day 138 is in – in this case May. There isn’t any AMO data for May 2014 yet.
AMO data comes from NOAA, Sea Ice data comes from NSIDC.
The red is the May AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The blue is Antarctic Sea Ice Extent just for day 138.
The dashed lines are the liner trends for each.
Click on the graph for a larger size.
I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time.
A while ago I noted the time between oscillations. Today I am just noting the size of the oscillations.
The current satellite record only started around 1978 (and only a partial years data exists). And until 1986, data only exists for alternating days.
Consider that the AMO is about 66 years long. And 1982 (the end of the big oscillations in the early part of the satellite record) is about 33 years ago I wonder if the big oscillation pattern will come to an end soon in the same way it came to an end after 1982? (Update: Or will it oscillate for 33 years?)
We don’t what happened off to the left of the graph (the pre-satellite era) with certainty. Or why these oscillations were once huge, and then settled down and then resumed their large oscillations again.
Click for larger.
“There is a huge event being forecasted this year by the CFSV2, and I don’t know if anyone else is mentioning this. For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal.”
I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time. A week or two ago I made a slight change in one of my graphs to annotate the peaks and valleys with the year and now the pattern jumps out at you even more.
This graph is for day 95, but the pattern is similar in other parts of the year.
There has been since 1988 a 4 or 5 year oscillation where the ice extent goes to a valley in between peaks. And the magnitude of the oscillation is growing.
These are not small oscillations. Sea Ice Extent as of today is 7,000,000 sq km. The 2011 valley is 4,700,000 sq km. That is a 50% jump in sea ice on day 95 from 2011 to 2014.
I know the AMO has peaked and is poised to start down (it may take a few more years). But to repeat myself, I’m not sure what it means.
Click for larger.
Some guy at the NY Times Thinks It Is The “End Of Snow” For the Olympics.
“In the last 47 years, a million square miles of spring snow cover has disappeared from the Northern Hemisphere”
I suspect the “author” used 47 years because the Rutgers Snow Lab’s data for the Northern Hemisphere starts in 1967 (2014 – 47).
Now the Olympics usually runs in February, so lets look at snow cover data for February.
2013 in February certainly had a little less snow than 1967 (47 years ago).
But 2013 had a lot more than 1968. About 3.5 million sq km more in fact according the Rutgers snow lab.
And 2010-2013 were probably the snowiest 4 years ever. The late 1970s would be the snowiest 3 years (but that was the coldest winter in US history)
1989 to 2002 looked bad for snow. But that was a long time ago. Warmists do tend to live in the past.
Looking at that graph I would have to conclude that there is no end of snow. Snow is doing just fine in the Northern Hemisphere.
However, the lack of snow does somewhat coincide with the AMO in February being very low. But it has nothing to do with CO2.
The drought in California is making the news. I’m sure it will be blamed on “Global Warming.
I came across an article by Roger Pielke Sr. from 2012 that reminds us that when the PDO is cool (which it is) and the AMO is warm (which it is) drought in California is going to happen.
The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. Below are two graphs of each month of the AMO. One is from 2004. The other from 1856.
I think the AMO has peaked, but it is still wobbling around at the top of the peak and may continue to do so for several years.
Thw winter months definitely show an alternating saw-tooth pattern going down. If the pattern holds Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb should show a big drop.
But Oct stayed flat when it should have dropped. Who knows.
Do you live in the Northern Hemisphere.? Did anyone tell you that in the midst of record CO2 levels HADCRUT4 shows massively dropping winter temperatures?
At the bottom of this post is a graph of HADCRUT4 Northern Hemisphere only temperatures for each month for the last 7 years.
Did you know December was cooling at -.9C per decade? By 2100 December could be 8C colder?
Did you know January was cooling at -.73C per decade?
Did you know March was cooling at -.56C per decade?
Did you know February was cooling at -.19C per decade?
Did you know November was cooling at -.2C per decade?
Did you know October was cooling at -.17C per decade?
Did you know April was cooling at -.17C per decade?
I’m glad I have a wood stove.
Over the last 10 years HADCRUT4 has had a slightly negative trend. But the months each have their own trend.
September to April have been cooling, while May – August have been warning, All 12 months with trends are below.
I wonder why CO2 has forsaken the winter months?
The interesting thing is this matches the AMO as you can see in the post I did in January. (I would do a new post but the US shutdown has shutdown the page I got the AMO data from).
When the AMO finishes going negative this will be very bad news for the CO2/Warmist Cult.. And even worse news for the world’s agriculture.
Right now, Dec/Jan/Feb are cooling at -0.17C/decade to -0.25C/decade. Brr. Germany is already off to the coldest start of winter in 200 years.