Arctic Sea Ice Extent is 13.09 million sq km on day 136.
Which makes it 170,000 sq km below the average (13.26 million sq km) for the day.
Which means it is a minuscule 1.3% below average.
12 other years on this day had less ice: 2004, 2006, 2011, 2007, 2010, 2005, 2003, 1989, 1996, 2002, 2008, 1995
What a strange death spiral for Arctic Sea Ice.
There are 11 years with less ice at this day in the year: 2006, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2003, 1989, 2005, 2002, 1996, 2010 and 1995.
Click for bigger.
If someone claims Arctic Sea Ice is in a death spiral, you can mention that right now 2013 is the 7th lowest and not the lowest.
And that 2013 has even more ice than 1989 at this point in the year.
Lowest 7 = 2006 2004 2011 2007 1989 2005 2013
And that Extent is within one standard deviation of the 1981 – 2010 mean. And only 340,000 sq km below the mean which is about 2.5%.
I saw the following article at the NSIDC site about the trend for April Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic.
And I wondered what it would look like if I just graphed the last 10 years. And I thought … looking ok.
And then I though … how about the last 20 years with a loess curve? Don’t you think the NSIDC articles words are misleading?
Arctic Sea is running about 3% below the 1981-2010 Mean.
But it is the 7th lowest as of this day of the year.
But did you know it was lower in 1989?
You can check for yourself on the Cryosphere Today Interactive Chart.
Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2013 is only 4th lowest so far using the mean up to this day in each year.
And the anomaly is half the 2006 anomaly.
We are saved!
| Year | Anomaly (sq km) |
| 2006 | -916,781 |
| 2005 | -744,955 |
| 2007 | -743,831 |
| 2013 | -484,217 |
| 2010 | -446,517 |
| 2012 | -445,151 |
| 2009 | -401,894 |
| 2004 | -347,932 |
| 2008 | -307,371 |
| 1996 | -212,097 |
| 2000 | -121,103 |
| 2002 | -54,227 |
| 2001 | -16,150 |
| 2003 | 14,480 |
| 1995 | 17,785 |
| 1991 | 52,640 |
| 1999 | 66,556 |
| 1997 | 96,180 |
| 1984 | 139,216 |
| 1992 | 184,595 |
| 1989 | 256,508 |
| 1994 | 271,011 |
| 1998 | 344,667 |
| 1981 | 375,843 |
| 1985 | 380,320 |
| 1990 | 399,046 |
| 1993 | 467,706 |
| 1988 | 479,840 |
| 1986 | 513,926 |
| 1987 | 598,476 |
| 1980 | 644,064 |
| 1983 | 693,561 |
| 1982 | 744,653 |
| 1979 | 950,301 |
(daily data from here)
Did you know that the Arctic Sea Ice Extent is only 1.4% lower than the 1981 – 2010 mean?
NSIDC data says that on March 19 (day 78) Arctic Sea Ice Extent was 15.09 million sq km. The mean for 1981-2010 for day 78 is 15.30 million sq km.
Wow. Only 1.4% below normal. Has that made the news?
Arctic Data from here.
A “team” of “University” of Washington “scientists” have beclowned themselves trying to claim the massive 2012 Arctic Cycle did not speed up the ice melt.
Their argument comes down to: “By September, most of the ice that melted would have melted with or without the cyclone.”
If you take two ice cubes and smash one into tiny pieces, which one melts first? The smashed one of course.
But the ice BESIDE the smashed ice would also melt quicker because the smashed ice would have provided support and cold/insulation if it had not been smashed.
For those of us old enough to remember fridge freezers that ice up and did not defrost themselves, we remember smashing as much ice with knives or screwdrivers to expose ice further back so it could melt sooner.
The UW team should be ashamed of themselves.
Has the AMO Peaked and started its drop towards negative? The answer is yes for winter months and no for summer months.
Maybe thats why winter Arctic Ice is doing fine and summer Arctic Ice is not doing fine.
I have included a graph for the AMO for all years that we have data, and then the AMO broken down for each individual month.
The blue boxes in the graphs contain 5 years averages, the blue line underneath is the 5 year period. Red values = above 0 and blue values = below 0.
The All Years AMO has dropped a little over the last 5 years compared to the previous 5 years, but the value is still higher than the 1950 peak of the AMO (but not as high as the short peak around 1878).
It is also interesting that the 1950 peak was in the middle of a 35-40 year period above zero and the current peak is only 15 years long. The AMO may still have decades left above zero, but the winter months look like it was a shorter peak.
May to October 5 year values are still higher than the previous peak around 1950.
November to April have dropped and are now lower than the previous peak around 1950.
Click on any graph to make it bigger.
2013 Arctic Sea Ice has increased by .96 million sq km since Jan 1 according to NOAA.
That is the 2nd largest increase ever for this day 17.
| Year | Start Day | Last Day | Starting Ice Extent | Ice Extent Today | New Ice |
| 1993 | 1 | 17 | 14.026 | 15.056 | 1.03 |
| 2013 | 1 | 17 | 12.897 | 13.86 | 0.963 |
| 1986 | 1 | 17 | 13.997 | 14.926 | 0.929 |
| 2003 | 1 | 17 | 13.615 | 14.538 | 0.923 |
| 2009 | 1 | 17 | 13.138 | 14.039 | 0.901 |
| 1985 | 2 | 18 | 14.025 | 14.839 | 0.814 |
| 1991 | 1 | 17 | 13.607 | 14.401 | 0.794 |
| 2002 | 1 | 17 | 13.544 | 14.323 | 0.779 |
| 1997 | 1 | 17 | 13.607 | 14.38 | 0.773 |
| 2000 | 1 | 17 | 13.403 | 14.174 | 0.771 |
| 2001 | 1 | 17 | 13.435 | 14.193 | 0.758 |
| 1983 | 1 | 17 | 14.233 | 14.989 | 0.756 |
| 1989 | 1 | 17 | 14.228 | 14.982 | 0.754 |
| 1980 | 1 | 17 | 14.191 | 14.941 | 0.75 |
| 1982 | 2 | 18 | 14.46 | 15.186 | 0.726 |
| 1981 | 1 | 17 | 14.259 | 14.95 | 0.691 |
| 1998 | 1 | 17 | 13.996 | 14.683 | 0.687 |
| 1994 | 1 | 17 | 14.068 | 14.751 | 0.683 |
| 2008 | 1 | 17 | 13.155 | 13.83 | 0.675 |
| 2005 | 1 | 17 | 13.119 | 13.769 | 0.65 |
| 2010 | 1 | 17 | 13.133 | 13.757 | 0.624 |
| 1987 | 2 | 18 | 14.285 | 14.902 | 0.617 |
| 1999 | 1 | 17 | 13.789 | 14.375 | 0.586 |
| 2007 | 1 | 17 | 13.076 | 13.66 | 0.584 |
| 2004 | 1 | 17 | 13.486 | 14.054 | 0.568 |
| 1995 | 1 | 17 | 14.111 | 14.65 | 0.539 |
| 2011 | 2 | 17 | 12.895 | 13.419 | 0.524 |
| 1992 | 1 | 17 | 14.038 | 14.541 | 0.503 |
| 1990 | 1 | 17 | 14.255 | 14.682 | 0.427 |
| 1996 | 1 | 17 | 13.766 | 14.18 | 0.414 |
| 2006 | 1 | 17 | 13.116 | 13.41 | 0.294 |
| 2012 | 1 | 17 | 13.369 | 13.569 | 0.2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 18 | 14.087 | 14.249 | 0.162 |
| 1988 | 14 | 17 | 14.828 | 14.978 | 0.15 |
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