UPDATE: Sorry about the title. Not sure what happened. Fixed now.
The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. And probably has more to do with Arctic Sea Ice than any other factor. This is loess trend of each month of the AMO on the same graph.
The winter months started trending down around 2005/2008. Spring months have been flattish since the same time. Only July-Sept have stayed high. June has been flat.
The first four months of 2014 were all negative.
Same graph, but from 1856 and 1979. The spread in months now seems to be repeating the pattern way back in 1856. But that could be an endpoint artifact.
Same graphs, but the data and the trends.
The graph is in thise post compares sea ice extent for just one day of each year – 138 to the AMO for the month day 138 is in – in this case May. There isn’t any AMO data for May 2014 yet.
AMO data comes from NOAA, Sea Ice data comes from NSIDC.
The red is the May AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The blue is Antarctic Sea Ice Extent just for day 138.
The dashed lines are the liner trends for each.
Click on the graph for a larger size.
I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time.
A while ago I noted the time between oscillations. Today I am just noting the size of the oscillations.
The current satellite record only started around 1978 (and only a partial years data exists). And until 1986, data only exists for alternating days.
Consider that the AMO is about 66 years long. And 1982 (the end of the big oscillations in the early part of the satellite record) is about 33 years ago I wonder if the big oscillation pattern will come to an end soon in the same way it came to an end after 1982? (Update: Or will it oscillate for 33 years?)
We don’t what happened off to the left of the graph (the pre-satellite era) with certainty. Or why these oscillations were once huge, and then settled down and then resumed their large oscillations again.
Click for larger.
“There is a huge event being forecasted this year by the CFSV2, and I don’t know if anyone else is mentioning this. For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal.”
I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time. A week or two ago I made a slight change in one of my graphs to annotate the peaks and valleys with the year and now the pattern jumps out at you even more.
This graph is for day 95, but the pattern is similar in other parts of the year.
There has been since 1988 a 4 or 5 year oscillation where the ice extent goes to a valley in between peaks. And the magnitude of the oscillation is growing.
These are not small oscillations. Sea Ice Extent as of today is 7,000,000 sq km. The 2011 valley is 4,700,000 sq km. That is a 50% jump in sea ice on day 95 from 2011 to 2014.
I know the AMO has peaked and is poised to start down (it may take a few more years). But to repeat myself, I’m not sure what it means.
Click for larger.
The Denier Credo
1) The Earth HAD been warming. And it stopped. And it also warmed from 1909 to 1945 and stopped for almost 35 years and cooled some. And it also warmed to about 1878 and also stopped and then cooled.
2) CO2 acts as a green house gas, and the amount of CO2 is increasing, and has increased a lot since 1998 with no effect on temperature
3) If Humans are causing climate change, it is very selective and tends to coincide with the AMO cycle.
4) This small amount of warming will cause fanatical people to squander trillions of dollars trying to prevent the same warming/cooling that has occurred in the past in a similar form to the AMO. This insane response to natural fluctuation is causing net economic harm and increase human suffering by replacing nuclear and coal power with tree burning power plants (which produce way more CO2) and bird chopping wind turbines and filthy rare earth contaminated solar panels.
5) The natural warming after the Little Ice Age is a good thing.
The NY Times is beclowning itself again in this article on drought in California.
Despite the fact that a cool PDO and warm AMO brings drought to California as shown by this post (referencing an article by Roger Pielke Sr. from 2012).
“What may be different about this drought is that, whatever the cause, the effects appear to have been made worse by climatic warming. And in making that case last week, scientists said, the administration was on solid ground.”
The drought in California is making the news. I’m sure it will be blamed on “Global Warming.
I came across an article by Roger Pielke Sr. from 2012 that reminds us that when the PDO is cool (which it is) and the AMO is warm (which it is) drought in California is going to happen.
The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. Below are two graphs of each month of the AMO. One is from 2004. The other from 1856.
I think the AMO has peaked, but it is still wobbling around at the top of the peak and may continue to do so for several years.
Thw winter months definitely show an alternating saw-tooth pattern going down. If the pattern holds Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb should show a big drop.
But Oct stayed flat when it should have dropped. Who knows.
Has the AMO Peaked and started its drop towards negative? The answer is yes for winter months and no for summer months.
Maybe thats why winter Arctic Ice is doing fine and summer Arctic Ice is not doing fine.
I have included a graph for the AMO for all years that we have data, and then the AMO broken down for each individual month.
The blue boxes in the graphs contain 5 years averages, the blue line underneath is the 5 year period. Red values = above 0 and blue values = below 0.
The All Years AMO has dropped a little over the last 5 years compared to the previous 5 years, but the value is still higher than the 1950 peak of the AMO (but not as high as the short peak around 1878).
It is also interesting that the 1950 peak was in the middle of a 35-40 year period above zero and the current peak is only 15 years long. The AMO may still have decades left above zero, but the winter months look like it was a shorter peak.
May to October 5 year values are still higher than the previous peak around 1950.
November to April have dropped and are now lower than the previous peak around 1950.
Click on any graph to make it bigger.