Death Spiral in the Arctic Confusion – 2013 is 1,000,000 sq km Higher Than 2010

UPDATE: For this day, 2013 is closer to the maximum record than the minimum record.

Today’s ice extent is 11.48399 million sq km.

 

The minimum occurred in 2010 at 10.41433 million sq km – 1.07 million sq km lower than 2013.

The maximum occurred in 1981 at 12.38081 million sq km – .89 million sq km higher than 2013.

The Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral is confused in 2013. It is now running 1,000,000 sq km higher than the lowest area on this day in 2010.

Arctic Sea Ice Area Went Up 40,000 sq km In Last Two Days.

I’ve never seen Arctic Sea Ice go up 40,000 sq km in June before.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent 800,000 sq km Higher Than 2010 and Only 130,000 sq km Below Average

Arctic Sea Ice Extent 800,000 sq km Higher Than 2010 and Only 130,000 sq km Below Average

Red Line is 2013. Blue Line is 2010 which had the lowest sea ice for this day

Arctic Death Spiral Update (Not Dead Yet)

The Arctic Sea Ice Extent stubbornly is refusing to die in the alleged “Death Spiral”.

Average Arctic Sea Ice For May (from 2004) is Climbing

Taking the mean of Arctic Sea Ice Extent for May (from 2004)  results in a graph that goes up up up (admittedly in small jumps).

Dashed line is linear trend. Green line is loess trend. (NSIDC data here)

 

Arctic Sea Ice is 0.83% below the 1981-2010 Mean – I do not think “Death Spiral” means what AGW think it means!

Arctic Sea Ice is 0.83% below the 1981-2010 Mean

Arctic Sea Ice 2013 – 14th Lowest

If someone claims Arctic Sea Ice is in a death spiral, you can mention that right now (Day 144 – May 24th)  2013 has the 14th smallest amount of sea ice and not the lowest.

13 Years With Less Arctic Sea Ice on Day 144: 2004, 2011, 2006, 2010, 1995, 2007, 2005, 2008, 2002, 2012, 2000, 2009, 1997

 

 

Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1.3% Below Average

Arctic Sea Ice Extent is 13.09 million sq km on day 136.

Which makes it 170,000 sq km below the average  (13.26 million sq km) for the day.

Which means it is a minuscule 1.3% below average.

12 other years on this day had less ice: 2004, 2006, 2011, 2007, 2010, 2005, 2003, 1989, 1996, 2002, 2008, 1995

If Arctic Sea Ice Is In A Death Spiral Why is 2013 The 12th Lowest And Not The Lowest?

What a strange death spiral for Arctic Sea Ice.

There are 11 years with less ice at this day in the year: 2006, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2003, 1989, 2005, 2002, 1996, 2010 and 1995.

Click for bigger.

 

Arctic Sea Ice 2013 – Where is the Death Spiral?

If someone claims Arctic Sea Ice is in a death spiral, you can mention that right now 2013 is the 7th lowest and not the lowest.

And that 2013 has even more ice than 1989 at this point in the year.

Lowest 7 = 2006 2004 2011 2007 1989 2005 2013

And that Extent is within one standard deviation of the 1981 – 2010 mean. And only 340,000 sq km below the mean which is about 2.5%.