sunshine hours

September 30, 2012

Amazing Graph of AMO vs Arctic Sea Ice vs Antarctic Sea Ice

Update: In an earlier version the legend on the graph had blue labeled as Antarctic even though it was Arctic. The body of the post had it right (thanks Tom,Hugh,Tom,Anthony,Mike and Sundance for noticing ).

I decided to graph the AMO vs Arctic Sea Ice Extent vs Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. AMO data comes from NOAA, Sea Ice data comes from NSIDC.

The green is the AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The red is Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. The blue is the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

The dashed lines are the liner trends for each.

There are three amazing things:

1) The AMO trend is identical to the Antarctic trend even though the AMO is the sea surface trend of the North Atlantic Ocean! The trend are so close it is hard to see the AMO and Antarctic trends as separate items.

2) The Arctic trend is almost a mirror image of the Antarctic trend.

3) The cross over point is around 1997 which is when the AMO went officially positive (it sometimes goes opposite to the main trend for a few months)

The AMO is cyclic and will return to negative soon enough and this graph implies that sea ice trends will just reverse in a few years.

Click on the graph for a larger size.


  1. […] Amazing Graph of AMO vs Arctic Sea Ice vs Antarctic Sea Ice […]

    Pingback by WOW!!!! Antarctic Sea Ice Extent All Time Records Set in 2012 | sunshine hours — September 30, 2012 @ 8:47 PM | Reply

  2. The key on your graph is messed up, you have no reference to Arctic, only Antarctic

    Comment by Anthony Watts — September 30, 2012 @ 11:12 PM | Reply

    • Thanks! Fixed. I rushed it. I appreciate you putting my posts on your site.

      Comment by sunshinehours1 — October 1, 2012 @ 7:26 AM | Reply

  3. Should the blue lines actually be “Arctic”, not antarctic? BTW, is there a graph of overall total sea ice (N and S pole combined)?

    Comment by Tom Harris (@TomHarrisICSC) — October 1, 2012 @ 1:31 AM | Reply

    • Thanks! Fixed. I am working on various different graphs but I better not rush them out. :(

      Comment by sunshinehours1 — October 1, 2012 @ 7:23 AM | Reply

  4. Your chart lists Antarctic twice. Great point, though. Of course when the AMO goes negative, the warmists will simply switch their view to the south.

    Comment by Mike Mangan — October 1, 2012 @ 3:37 AM | Reply

    • Thanks! Fixed.

      Even though many onthe warmist side claim to be believers in science, they seem to think the AMO and PDO are some magical annoyance designed by “deniers”.

      Comment by sunshinehours1 — October 1, 2012 @ 7:22 AM | Reply

  5. Very interesting graph. Two things though: the key box below contains a small but obnoxious error: it lists the Antartic instead of the Artic here so the Antartic appears twice (or four times) here. The other thing is more general: which scale is used for AMO? I guess it’s temperature anomaly but the exact slope of the linear rise would depend on the exact scale being used. Would it be somewhat of a coincedence that the lines overlap in this instance then? And yet it’s stunning to see this possible relation.

    Comment by Hugh Evan — October 1, 2012 @ 4:08 AM | Reply

    • Thanks! Fixed.

      The trend is the same no matter the scale.

      Comment by sunshinehours1 — October 1, 2012 @ 7:21 AM | Reply

      • It’s not made clear what the graph gains exactly by drawing the two similar upwards trends as being identical and overlapping each other. Since the trend scales do not use similar units or can be derived from each other the only thing that can be shown is the presence of a linear rise in both cases (Antartic trend + AMO trend). It’s impressive enough already, but no need for overlapping IMO.

        Comment by Hugh Evan — October 1, 2012 @ 3:32 PM

      • I use the lm function in [R}
        When I started to graph all three I had no idea the AMO trend would be so close to the Antarctic Trend.

        AMO trend = 0.001569

        Antarctic Trend = 0.01651

        Arctic Trend = -0.057

        Comment by sunshinehours1 — October 1, 2012 @ 5:22 PM

  6. Hi SH – just a heads up that in the graph you have the blue plot labeled as Antarctic and not Arctic.

    Comment by Sundance — October 1, 2012 @ 4:54 AM | Reply

  7. Nice, clear, concise piece of work.

    Comment by Crispin in Yogyakarta — October 19, 2012 @ 5:21 PM | Reply

  8. Reblogged this on Standard Climate.

    Comment by Standard Climate — November 3, 2012 @ 12:18 PM | Reply

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