BBC: Heatwaves “More Likely” claim is ruined by the data

Paul Homewood discusses BBC claims that Heatwaves are more likely due to climate change. And because 2014 was the “hottest” year.

So I decided to look at the HADCET MAXTEMP data.

Not the average. The maximum.

I then arbitrarily set the heatwave boundary at 25C.

And then calculated the number of days over 25 and the longest stretch (ie Heatwave).

Guess what? 2014 barely ranks. Only 8 days above 25.  1911 had 29! (See large table at bottom for 25C heatwaves)

What if I set the Heatwave definition at 30C? There are only 8 years that have days over 30C.

1976 is the winner. And 1976 was 39 years ago! (Corrected from 30)

The 30C days and temps.

“1976-07-01” “1976-07-02” “1976-07-03” “1976-07-04” “1976-07-05” “1976-07-06” “1976-07-07”
“30.6” “31.8” “33.2” “31.4” “31.4” “31.6” “30.4”

30C Heatwaves

Year Days Longest Heatwave
1976 9 7
1995 5 4
1975 4 2
1906 3 3
1948 3 3
2006 3 2
1923 2 2
1990 2 2

25C Heatwave.

Year Days Longest Heatwave
1976 33 16
1995 33 10
1911 29 4
2006 26 7
1947 25 10
2003 23 10
1949 22 6
1933 21 6
1893 19 6
1921 19 6
1955 19 5
1975 19 8
1983 18 7
1989 18 7
1899 17 4
1887 16 3
1959 16 3
1990 16 4
1997 16 7
2013 16 8
2005 15 5
1884 14 5
1900 14 3
1935 14 4
1999 14 5
2001 13 5
1941 12 3
1878 11 6
1897 11 4
1898 11 5
1934 11 8
1970 11 5
1984 10 5
1901 9 5
1925 9 3
1942 9 4
1982 9 2
1991 9 3
1994 9 3
1996 9 5
2004 9 2
1906 8 5
1929 8 3
1957 8 4
1960 8 3
1969 8 3
1986 8 4
2014 8 5
1896 7 2
1919 7 2
1923 7 3
1944 7 3
1952 7 2
1973 7 4
1886 6 3
1895 6 2
1908 6 3
1914 6 2
1926 6 4
1937 6 2
1940 6 4
1945 6 3
1946 6 5
1961 6 2
2010 6 2
2011 6 3
1881 5 2
1885 5 4
1918 5 3
1930 5 4
1948 5 5
1953 5 2
1977 5 5
1987 5 2
1992 5 2
1998 5 4
2000 5 3
2009 5 4
1891 4 4
1902 4 2
1904 4 2
1912 4 3
1922 4 2
1928 4 2
1932 4 2
1936 4 3
1939 4 4
1943 4 2
1950 4 4
1963 4 2
1968 4 2
2008 4 2
1894 3 2
1905 3 2
1917 3 2
1978 3 2
1980 3 2
1988 3 2
2002 3 2
1880 2 2
1924 2 2
1972 2 2

Will Britain Enjoy Fewer Cold Days Thanks To Global Warming? No.

A new “study” is out.

“Britain will have fewer days of ‘extreme cold’ and will enjoy milder winters as a direct result of climate change, according to a new study.

The new research is set to cool growing fears that the Northern Hemisphere could be gripped by more severe winters throughout the next century due to the Arctic warming up.”

In these cases I like to turn to HADCET Daily Minimum data which is available from 1878 on. And I thought I would look at the number of days that the minimum was lower or equal to 0C for each year.

 Wow. 2010 had the 6th highest number of days that were 0C or colder. So much for “Global Warming”.

Year Days Longest Coldwave
1879 91 18
1917 90 28
1887 83 11
1888 81 23
1892 80 14
2010 79 16
1963 78 27
1895 75 32
1909 75 23
1891 73 13

What about equal to or less than -5C? Wow! 2010 was 2nd highest with 21 days.

Year Days Longest Coldwave
1963 26 5
2010 21 5
1895 20 11
1892 17 7
1940 17 14
1881 16 8
1985 16 6
1879 14 7
1962 14 3
1878 13 6

614 Days Under -5C 6281 Days Under 0C

HADCET November 2013 Visualized

HADCET TMean data goes back to 1663. TMin and TMax data is from 1878.

November 2013 Tmean was slightly above the 350 year average. All the red bars were Novembers warmer than 2013. The green bars were tied with 2013.

The 15 warmest TMean were: 1994,2011,1818,1938,1743,1730,1817,1881,1939,2009,1821,1899,1951,1953,1978. Click images to make bigger.

 

HADCET MEAN Monthly - NOV - 1663 to 2013

HADCET MAX Monthly - NOV - 1878 to 2013

HADCET MIN Monthly - NOV - 1878 to 2013

HADCET – November 2013 Monthly Report – .82C Colder

This report is using TMax data for HADCET (Central England Temperature)  which is available from 1878.

November 2013 was .82C colder than the 1981-2010 average and .12C colder than the 1878-2013 average.

17 of the days were colder than the 1878-2013 average and 21 were colder than the 1981-2010 average.

Note that 5 of the daily records were from 1938 and 2 of the daily records are from 1895.

Date TMax 1878-2013 Mean 1878-2013 Anomaly 1981-2010 Mean 1981-2010 Anomaly Warmest Year Warmest TMax Difference (Warmest – TMax)
2013-11-1 12.2 11.4 0.8 12.6 -0.4 1984 16.3 4.1
2013-11-2 13.1 11.3 1.8 11.9 1.2 1927 17.7 4.6
2013-11-3 11 11.1 -0.1 11.9 -0.9 2011 16.8 5.8
2013-11-4 9.7 10.9 -1.2 11.6 -1.9 1946 18.7 9
2013-11-5 10.5 10.8 -0.3 11.6 -1.1 1938 17.6 7.1
2013-11-6 12.6 10.4 2.2 11.3 1.3 1972 16.1 3.5
2013-11-7 10.6 10.3 0.3 11.2 -0.6 1978 15.1 4.5
2013-11-8 9 10.2 -1.2 11.4 -2.4 1998 15.5 6.5
2013-11-9 7.3 10 -2.7 10.9 -3.6 1977 15.9 8.6
2013-11-10 9.4 10.2 -0.8 11.1 -1.7 1977 16.2 6.8
2013-11-11 12.9 10.3 2.6 11.2 1.7 1938 15.3 2.4
2013-11-12 11.4 10 1.4 10.9 0.5 1938 16.3 4.9
2013-11-13 9.7 9.5 0.2 10.2 -0.5 1938 16.1 6.4
2013-11-14 8.7 9.1 -0.4 9.9 -1.2 1994 14.8 6.1
2013-11-15 8.5 9 -0.5 10.1 -1.6 1895 15.2 6.7
2013-11-16 9 8.7 0.3 9.6 -0.6 1895 15.7 6.7
2013-11-17 9.5 8.5 1 9.2 0.3 1997 14.8 5.3
2013-11-18 8.5 8.6 -0.1 9.5 -1 1978 15.2 6.7
2013-11-19 6.5 8.7 -2.2 9 -2.5 1994 15.6 9.1
2013-11-20 6.7 8.6 -1.9 8.7 -2 1947 15.3 8.6
2013-11-21 8.2 8.4 -0.2 8.8 -0.6 1947 15.7 7.5
2013-11-22 7.5 8.5 -1 8.6 -1.1 1906 15.4 7.9
2013-11-23 5.6 8.6 -3 8.7 -3.1 1947 14.3 8.7
2013-11-24 7.3 8.7 -1.4 9.2 -1.9 1980 14 6.7
2013-11-25 6 8.5 -2.5 9.1 -3.1 1983 13.8 7.8
2013-11-26 8.8 8.2 0.6 8.8 0 1979 14.5 5.7
2013-11-27 10.6 8.2 2.4 8.8 1.8 2000 13.6 3
2013-11-28 9 8.1 0.9 8.5 0.5 2000 14.7 5.7
2013-11-29 9.5 8 1.5 8.4 1.1 1939 14 4.5
2013-11-30 7.7 7.8 -0.1 8.9 -1.2 2001 14.3 6.6

HADCET – Tmax – March 2013

I know March was months ago. But I’m playing around with a new report and I thought I would look  at TMax data for HADCET (Central England Temperature). TMax data is only available since 1878.

23 out of the 31 days were colder than the warmest day (since 1878) by double digits. March 23rd was 18.6C colder than the warmest March 23rd.

Date TMax 2013 Warmest Year Warmest TMax Difference (Warmest – 2013)
2013-3-1 6.8 1959 14.9 8.1
2013-3-2 6.4 1977 16.5 10.1
2013-3-3 7.5 1957 14.3 6.8
2013-3-4 8.9 1928 16 7.1
2013-3-5 13.8 1961 16 2.2
2013-3-6 9.1 1961 15.3 6.2
2013-3-7 8.8 1906 14.9 6.1
2013-3-8 8 1961 15.1 7.1
2013-3-9 5.3 1948 19.9 14.6
2013-3-10 2.7 1929 17.4 14.7
2013-3-11 1.2 1957 18.4 17.2
2013-3-12 4.1 1957 18.4 14.3
2013-3-13 6 1991 17.2 11.2
2013-3-14 6.7 1948 17.9 11.2
2013-3-15 8.1 1961 17.9 9.8
2013-3-16 8.5 1961 20 11.5
2013-3-17 6.8 1990 19.3 12.5
2013-3-18 6.5 1990 19.6 13.1
2013-3-19 7.1 1972 17.6 10.5
2013-3-20 3.9 1929 17.5 13.6
2013-3-21 4.9 1927 17.8 12.9
2013-3-22 3.6 1918 16.3 12.7
2013-3-23 0.8 1945 19.4 18.6
2013-3-24 1.2 2012 18.9 17.7
2013-3-25 2.7 1953 19.1 16.4
2013-3-26 2.3 2012 18.8 16.5
2013-3-27 3 2012 19.5 16.5
2013-3-28 4.3 1929 20.3 16
2013-3-29 4.8 1965 22.1 17.3
2013-3-30 5.9 1929 19 13.1
2013-3-31 5.7 1907 18.7 13

HADCET Maximum Temperature – Days over 30C

HADCET Daily Maximum data is available from 1878 on. There were 45 days over 30C since 1878.

I think we can agree that the AGW Cult insists we are all going to die because of massive heat waves.

Of the 45 days 30C and over, 5 occurred from 2003 to 2006, none after 2006.

6 occurred in the 1940s.

14 occurred in the 1970s – 9 of which occurred in 1976 alone.

Is death by heatwave imminent in the area covered by HADCET? I think not. And then there is the matter of UHI …

Year Month Day MAX TEMP
1878 6 26 30
1906 8 31 30.4
1906 9 1 31
1906 9 2 31.3
1911 8 9 31.5
1911 8 13 30.1
1921 7 10 30.1
1923 7 12 31.1
1923 7 13 30.6
1930 8 27 30.2
1932 8 19 30.3
1943 7 31 30.9
1947 6 2 30
1948 7 28 30.8
1948 7 29 31.6
1948 7 30 30.5
1949 7 12 30.2
1970 7 7 30.1
1975 8 3 30.3
1975 8 4 31.9
1975 8 7 31
1975 8 8 31.1
1976 6 28 30.3
1976 6 29 30.1
1976 7 1 30.6
1976 7 2 31.8
1976 7 3 33.2
1976 7 4 31.4
1976 7 5 31.4
1976 7 6 31.6
1976 7 7 30.4
1984 7 8 30
1990 8 2 32.8
1990 8 3 33.2
1995 7 31 30.2
1995 8 1 31.9
1995 8 2 31.4
1995 8 3 30.3
1995 8 11 30.3
1997 8 10 30.3
2003 7 15 31.1
2003 8 9 32.8
2006 7 18 30.9
2006 7 19 32.9
2006 7 25 30.2