NASA Predicts: ‘there are no guarantees’

I was quite sure NASA knew exactly what was going to happen. Don’t they model the climate? Don’t they use those models to ask for big grants. Now they are saying that literally anything could happen. Then what use are they?

‘If past events help predict future ones, then we have probably reached the peak of the 2015–2016 El Niño,’ the space agency said.

‘Warmer-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean should start to cool off and shift westward.

‘By summer, the tropical Pacific might be back in a neutral state or La Niña cooling could kick in, as it did after major El Niños of the past.

But will the ocean respond in 2016 the way it did in 1998 and 1983? Given that the planet is hotter than at any time in the past 135 years, there are no guarantees.’

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3412610/Is-end-El-Ni-o-Nasa-say-phenomenon-start-disappear-warn-global-warming-means-happen.html

British Columbia Canada Tmax – Missing Data April 2015

This a followup to this post: British Columbia Canada Tmax , Tmin and Tmean from 1873 (On 1×1 Grid)

The following map shows which stations were missing (or not missing) daily Tmax data in the monthly summary for April 2015.

Blue had 0-3 days missing. Red more than 3. What saddens me is that 19 out of the 43 “red” stations were also “Normals” – which means they were reference stations.

Canada Monthly Summary Analysis - Missing Tmax Data - April 2015

 

 

Alberta Canada Tmax , Tmin and Tmean from 1873 (On 1×1 Grid) – It Was 2C Warmer in the 1940s

This is the Alberta followup the BC post. You can read the explnations.

In the terms of Tmax the coldest period in Alberta (using 5 year means) was 1972-1976.

The warmest period was 1940 – 1944. In fact it was 2C warmer in 1940-1944 than 2011 – 2015. (The 1930s were just slightly cooler than the early 40s)

You may ask why the green line of grid counts goes up and down so much. It appears there are many more stations reporting in May/Jun/Jul/Aug/Sep than in the winter.

Tmax

Canada Monthly Summary Analysis - 1873 to 2015 - Tmax - 1x1 Grid - AB

Tmin

Canada Monthly Summary Analysis - 1873 to 2015 - Tmin - 1x1 Grid - AB

Tmean

Canada Monthly Summary Analysis - 1873 to 2015 - Tmean - 1x1 Grid - AB

Click for larger:

 

 

 

British Columbia Canada Tmax , Tmin and Tmean from 1873 (On 1×1 Grid)

Step 1: Use Data from Environment Canada’s monthly summaries.

Step 2: Summarize the data by 1×1 grid square so no region dominates.

Step 3: Graph Tmax, Tmin and Tmean.

The black line is the monthly data. The blue boxes contain the 5 year mean (and I set the 5 year period by just going back from the most recent data in 5 year increments)

The green line is the number of 1×1 grid squares. The blue dashed line is the trend from 1873 (which is the earliest data).

(I won’t count the pre-1900 data as too important since there were so few stations)

Tmax was 1.5C  warmer in the the 1920s/30s/40s than now.

Tmin now is the hottest its been since 1900.

Tmean in the early 40s was slightly warmer than now.

Tmean/Tmin has been warming since 1970 thanks to Tmin … not Tmax.

Click for larger:

Tmax

Canada Monthly Summary Analysis - 1873 to 2015 - Tmax - 1x1 Grid - BC

Tmin

Canada Monthly Summary Analysis - 1873 to 2015 - Tmin - 1x1 Grid - BC

Tmean

Canada Monthly Summary Analysis - 1873 to 2015 - Tmean - 1x1 Grid - BC