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June 29, 2014

Sea Ice Update June 29 2014 – Antarctica Sea Ice Extent Day 179

If I was an alarmists I would suggest that at the current rate of increase, by 2100 Antarctica will be completely inaccessible by ship.

But I’m not. I do wonder if the the spike in 1979 is an artifact of the satellite at that time, or if it is where we are now (remember the area to the left of 1979 just wasn’t recorded so we don’t know what it really looks like) and once the AMO cools Antarctica Sea Ice Extent will shrink and the Arctic will grow.

 

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for Day 179 From 1978 (infilled)

 

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5 Comments »

  1. I have to disagree with your comment that Antarctica sea ice will decline with cool AMO phase. , PDO has been in cool phase and Antarctic ice has grown since. I do feel if both become negative phase with the quiet solar cycles. we could really see serious ice growth worldwide at all times of the year.

    I also have noticed the sun’s activities(strong or weak) has a huge influence on Antarctica sea ice.
    Chart of S hem and PDO
    Match perfect. https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/483792527901081600/photo/1
    BTW TSI(solar Flux and PDO match nicely also when weather patterns are quiet.

    Comment by Chris Beal (@NJSnowFan) — June 30, 2014 @ 7:03 PM | Reply

  2. PDO was in a negative phase up to 1979

    Here is the PDO data link and AMO

    http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

    Comment by Chris Beal (@NJSnowFan) — June 30, 2014 @ 7:15 PM | Reply

  3. The sun’s activity just picked up around 6/24 so there has been about one week lag time on the effects on ice growth around Antarctica. Any day it should slow/stop growing for 3-4 days then continue back up.

    http://www.solen.info/solar/

    Comment by Chris Beal (@NJSnowFan) — June 30, 2014 @ 7:21 PM | Reply

  4. I agree. You can see the same effect in the Arctic Air Temperatures http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php . This Solar Cycle peak is almost over. The UV will continue to fall over the next 10 years to its minimum value of ~65. UV less than 100 is Global cooling.

    Comment by jlurtz — July 1, 2014 @ 6:50 AM | Reply

  5. As I expected with a big jump in Solar activity, Antarctica sea ice taking a pause/slower growth.

    https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/484710544168202240/photo/1

    Comment by Chris Beal (@NJSnowFan) — July 3, 2014 @ 7:53 AM | Reply


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